Big Year for Flat-Panel TVs
But Plasma sales will begin to surpass LCD TVs by year's end.
When it comes to television, how you look may be more important than how your TV's picture looks.
Prices of LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) and Plasma TVs are expected to fall dramatically in 2005, perhaps as high as 30 percent for some large-screen sets.Consequently, I predict that both flat-panel models will experience a sharp increase in sales during the year.
Consumers have been bitten by the flat-screen bug and they are getting ready to scratch. Women are particularly enamored with the sets because they are just three to six inches deep; they add to a room's decor like a stylish piece of furniture.
However, many analysts are predicting that LCD could have a breakthrough year. Unlike Plasma, LCD can be produced economically for smaller-screen sets, raising the possibility that LCD could replace the picture-tube TV in the coming years. The prospect of mass sales has prompted Sony to significantly increase LCD production. In fact, Mike Fidler, a Sony senior vice president, recently told The New York Times that LCD will wipe out Plasma in three to five years.
However, I would hedge my bets if I were Mr. Fidler.
It's true that LCD could dominate the smaller-screen market (TVs 27 inches and smaller). The LCD technology (the liquid crystals are squeezed in between sections of glass) will soon enable Sony and others to produce small-screen, HDTV-ready, flat-panel sets for well under $1,000. Despite the belief by some that it provides a better picture, it's hard to envision the tube TV surviving the decade.
However, by predicting that LCD will conquer all, Sony is underestimating the power of Plasma.
Over the last year, the Plasma TV has become a status symbol in the American culture. The term itself is now invoked in the same breathless way as a BMW, Rolex or iPod. The Consumer Electronics Association recently found that the Plasma TV is the most "desired" gift on Americans' holiday wish lists.
When a product achieves that iconic status, it begins to build a inexorable momentum in the marketplace. (Notice that the struggling TiVo is not atop the wish list, despite the buzz surrounding the Digital Video Recorder. TiVo gets more attention from the media than consumers.) People start buying the thing out of lust, not because of its actual value. In fact, they probably don't even know if the Plasma TV is better than a LCD TV (debatable), or whether it comes with a High-Definition
TV capability (it does in most cases). Or, whether a LCD TV is also a flat-panel set! They just know that if they buy a "Plasma TV," they will be the talk of the neighborhood. The term -- the brand, if you will -- is what matters.
The LCD TV will never achieve that kind of prestige. There simply isn't room in the category for two status symbols. And, despite what some industry officials believe, the term itself, "Plasma," has become bigger than the concept of owning a flat-screen TV.
So, I predict that Plasma TV will begin to dominate the large-screen, flat-panel category by year's end (when prices for Plasma TVs 40 inches and above are expected to fall under $2,000.). LCD makers will see the handwriting on the wall and focus more attention on producing smaller-screen sets.
Then, in 2006 and beyond, the LCD TV will start to become the standard in the small-screen category. And Plasma will start to become the gold standard in the larger-screen category.
What about DLP and other new picture display technologies? Well, I have 19 more predictions for 2005. Stay tuned.
Phillip Swann is President & Publisher of TVPredictions.com. If you would like to contact Mr. Swann, he can be reached at 703-505-3064 or at Swann@TVPredictions.com. And come back every weekday for a new prediction for 2005!
Source: press release
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